In recent years, there has been an increase in interest in vinyl records, with sales reaching the highest levels in decades. In the digital era, where streaming music and audio files dominate, one might wonder if vinyl records will continue to increase their sales. Therefore, it is worth attempting to present a forecast of vinyl record sales for the coming years.
However, it should be noted that forecasting sales is dependent on many market variables that we cannot currently predict. Here are a few factors that can influence the projection of vinyl record sales:
- Market trends: In recent years, the sales of vinyl records have gained popularity, partly due to the increased interest in analog sound and nostalgia associated with vinyl recordings. If this trend continues, further sales growth can be expected.
- Digital competition: Despite the growing popularity of vinyl records, digital music streaming platforms still dominate the music market. This can have an impact on vinyl record sales, especially if consumers lean more towards using streaming services.
- Prices and availability: The prices of vinyl records can influence consumer decisions. If prices increase significantly, it may have a negative effect on the demand for this type of medium. On the other hand, greater availability of vinyl records through increased production can also impact sales, and growing interest can result in a higher number of new vinyl releases.
We will make forecasts for vinyl record sales for the years 2023–2030 based on historical data from 2005–2022, as depicted in the accompanying chart.
We start from the lowest point in 2005 when vinyl record sales were at their lowest in history, at $0.021 billion, similar to the level in 1993.
Forecast I: The market grows by 10% annually
If we assume that the vinyl record market grows at a rate of 10% annually, the forecasted sales for 2024-2030 may look like the chart below.
Sales starting from $1.2 billion in 2022 will increase by 114.25% in the years 2023-2030, reaching $2.57 billion.
Forecast II: Simple linear regression
This method involves finding a linear relationship between time and vinyl record sales. The levels of sales are illustrated in the chart.
Sales starting from $1.2 billion in 2022 will increase by 80.83% in the years 2023-2030, reaching $2.17 billion.
Forecast III: Neural regression model
This forecast is the result of processing data, training a neural regression model, and generating forecasts based on available data from 1973–2022. The chart below presents the calculated forecast.
Comparing these results, one can notice that forecasts based on the neural regression model differ from those based on the simple linear regression model. The neural regression model can account for more complex relationships between input and output data, which can lead to more accurate forecasts. On the other hand, the simple linear regression model considers only a linear relationship between the data, which can result in simpler forecasts.
However, it should be noted that the forecast results are only estimates based on available data and models, and actual results may vary depending on many external factors. The final choice between simple linear regression and neural regression model depends on the accuracy and complexity of the forecast, as well as the available data and other contextual factors.
And what will it be like? We’ll see!